Replication of “Why Should the Republicans Pray for Rain? Electoral Consequences of Rainfall Revisited”(Yusaku Horiuchi and Woo Chang Kang), American Politics Research, 1-21, 2017.

* Description: 
Existing studies—most importantly, Gomez, Hansford, and Krause—provideempirical support for an idea often embraced by popular media: The voteshare of the Republican Party (as the percentage of total votes) increaseswhen it rains, because the magnitude of decrease in turnout is larger amongDemocratic vis-à-vis Republican supporters. Considering the compositionalnature of aggregated data, we show that the alleged Republican advantagederives in part from an increase in the number of votes for the RepublicanParty. Based on the extensive literature of psychology and related fields, weprovide a possible interpretation of this counter-intuitive empirical finding.Methodologically, our evidence suggests that researchers must be alertwhen using rainfall as an instrument to estimate the causal effects of voterturnout on electoral outcome.

* Files included in this package:

- ReadMe.txt
- _replication_table.do
- _replication_simulation.do
- _replication_plot.R
- sur_us_demeaned_2018.dta
Files generated by _replication_table.do
- main_temp_high.dta- main_temp_low.dta- party3_rain_high.dta- party3_rain_low.dta
- sim_2party_rain.dta- sim_3party_rain.dta- sim_coef_rain_3party.dta- sim_coef_rain.dta

* Program: Stata Version 13.1

* Additional programs required: N/A

* Process of Replication:
	(1) Run _replication_table.do
	(3) Run _replication_plot.R

* Most Recent Date of Successful Replication: February 16, 2018